SERA UN NUEVO IMPULSO TECNOLOGICO PARA LA INDUSTRIA ESPACIAL
[size=+1]2004 MN4
Earth Impact Risk Summary[/size]Torino Scale (maximum)1
Palermo Scale (maximum)-1.78
Palermo Scale (cumulative)-1.45
Impact Probability (cumulative)1.5e-04Number of Potential Impacts10
Vimpact12.59 km/s
Vinfinity5.86 km/s
H19.2
Diameter0.320 km
Mass4.6e+10 kg
Energy8.6e+02 MT
[size=-1]all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability[/size][size=-1]Analysis based on 2 radar delay, 3 Doppler, and
706 optical observations spanning 389.01 days
(2004-Mar-15.10789 to 2005-Apr-08.12086)[/size][size=-1]Orbit diagram and elements available
here.[/size]
These results were computed on Apr 11, 2005
[size=+1]2004 MN4
Earth Impact Table[/size]DateDistanceWidthSigma
ImpactSigma
LOVStretch
LOVImpact
ProbabilityImpact
EnergyPalermo
ScaleTorino
ScaleYYYY-MM-DD.DD[size=-1]
(rEarth)[/size][size=-1]
(rEarth)[/size] [size=-1]
(rEarth)[/size] [size=-1]
(MT)[/size] 2034-04-13.89 0.67 1.14e-03 0.000 -2.50556 9.60e+03
2.7e-06 8.65e+02 -3.16 0 2035-04-14.13 0.62 1.22e-03 0.000 -0.94612 9.39e+03
4.2e-05 8.64e+02 -1.98 1 2036-04-13.37 0.53 1.37e-03 0.000 0.36362 9.27e+03
6.8e-05 8.65e+02 -1.78 1 2037-04-13.64 0.63 1.27e-03 0.000 1.49247 9.16e+03
2.2e-05 8.65e+02 -2.29 0 2042-04-13.73 0.94 0.00e+00 0.000 0.35961 2.89e+06
2.0e-07 8.65e+02 -4.39 0 2044-04-13.27 0.96 1.11e-02 0.000 1.48697 1.82e+06
8.2e-08 8.65e+02 -4.80 0 2046-04-13.34 0.05 1.35e-03 0.000 1.94997 1.01e+04
1.2e-05 8.64e+02 -2.67 0 2048-04-13.29 0.40 1.79e-03 0.000 2.91927 1.50e+04
6.9e-07 8.64e+02 -3.92 0 2054-04-13.41 0.87 1.70e-03 0.000 1.50959 1.97e+05
1.0e-06 8.64e+02 -3.80 0 2055-04-13.73 0.23 1.70e-03 0.000 1.97358 1.79e+05
6.3e-07 8.65e+02 -4.03 0
Summary Table Description
The Orbit of 2004 MN4
The orbit of 2004 MN4 about the Sun is shown in blue. Much of the asteroid's orbit lies within the Earth's orbit, which is the outermost white circle. The positions of the asteroid and the Earth are shown for December 23, 2004, when the object was about 14 million km (9 million miles) away from the Earth.
Possible Positions of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029
The cloud of possible positions of asteroid 2004 MN4 relative to Earth on April 13, 2029 is shown in white. The Moon's orbit is also shown, for scale. The blue arrow indicates the direction of motion of the cloud as it sweeps past the Earth. A tiny portion of the cloud intersects the Earth. A slight dip in the cloud due to the Earth's gravity is clearly evident. The length of the cloud is directly related to current uncertainties in our knowledge of this new object's orbit. As astronomers track this asteroid over the coming weeks and months, the orbit will become better determined and the cloud will shorten, converging on a true position which, in all likelihood, will be well removed from the Earth.
Animation of Possible Positions of 2004 MN4 in April 2029
Small Animated GIF (62K)
Large Animated GIF (119K)
Animation showing the cloud of possible positions of asteroid 2004 MN4 relative to Earth in April 2029 is shown in white. The Moon's orbit is also shown, for scale. A tiny portion of the cloud intersects the Earth. The length of the cloud is directly related to current uncertainties in our knowledge of this new object's orbit. This animation will repeat itself ten times.
