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Labour MPs ‘would defy Corbyn’ on Syria action after Egypt air crash
Senior MP claims most colleagues would back plans to deploy troops in response to feared terrorist attack on Russian airliner
Britain edged closer to eventual military involvement in Syria after a senior
Labour MP claimed most of his colleagues could defy their leader by supporting the deployment of British forces there, in the wake of the suspected terror attack on a Russian airliner over Egypt.
As thousands of Britons waited to leave Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday, John Woodcock, a member of Labour’s internal defence committee and MP for Barrow and Furness, said
a decisive number of his colleagues could now be convinced about widening Britain’s military involvement into Syria if the government made the case. Jeremy Corbyn opposes any involvement.
The defence secretary Michael Fallon claimed in the wake of the crash that killed all 224 passengers on the Airbus A321 on 31 October that it was
“morally indefensible” for Britain to rely on other countries to tackle Islamic State (Isis) when it was a direct threat to the UK’s national security.
The UK is already among a coalition – including the US, France and Australia – fighting Isis militants in Iraq. It is understood that ministers have been privately discussing with both Labour MPs and sceptical Tory MPs what action in Syria might be approved by parliament.
Woodcock said it was time for the prime minister to go public with a strategy in order to win support in the Commons and among the wider public.
The MP, who is a founding member of the all-party Friends of Syria group of MPs, said: “I think Jeremy Corbyn’s and [shadow international development secretary] Diane Abbott’s views on this are probably set in stone and probably have been for the last 30 years.
“But I think the majority of Labour MPs will feel, yes, the party whip is important, but that they have an individual responsibility as an MP, aside from party allegiance, to make what is the right, although always difficult, decision to consider putting UK forces potentially in harm’s way. I think the majority are open-minded, but they want to see a plan.”
The number of Conservative MPs who would oppose intervention in a vote is likely to be in single figures, but Downing Street is yet to be convinced that there are enough opposition MPs to secure victory in a vote.
The Labour MP’s comments suggest that the Tory rebels could now be more than outnumbered by the number of Corbyn’s MPs prepared to back the move, despite their leader’s opposition to it.
Crispin Blunt, the Tory MP who chairs the foreign affairs select committee, dismissed Fallon’s comments but also said it was time for a strategy to be laid out for parliament to consider.
He told the
Observer the suspected terror
attack on the Metrojet airliner over the Sinai peninsula would usher in greater cooperation with Russia, but that the government had yet to provide a convincing rationale for British forces adding their weight to coalition attacks on Isis strongholds outside of Iraq.
“We need a convincing comprehensive strategy. The moral imperative, as Michael Fallon describes it, to mobilise the entirety of eight RAF jets, doesn’t do the trick,” said Blunt.
“We need to be clear: is this going to work and is it legal? If we can answer those questions satisfactorily, then go for it.”
About 1,400 people were returned to the UK on Friday from Sharm el-Sheikh and another 1,500 were expected to leave on Saturday, but it is expected to take a further 10 days to repatriate all of the British tourists stranded at the Red Sea resort.
A British government spokesman said: “With a limited number of flights able to leave Sharm el-Sheikh each day for the UK, it is likely that tour operators or airlines will advise some people to extend their stay at their resort.”
Egypt’s civil aviation minister, Hossam Kamal, said the volume of luggage being left behind by British passengers had disrupted operations at the airport, and that a large number of scheduled flights had been cancelled.
Of 29 services scheduled on Friday, 21 were cancelled by the Egyptian authorities and some planes were forced to divert in mid-flight.
There are also an estimated 70,000 Russians at the resort and in Hurghada, on the other side of the Red Sea.
The Russian deputy prime minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, said his country’s nationals would not be flocking to come home. “Tourists will be returning from Egypt to
Russia when they planned to,” he said.
The head of an investigation committee into the crash, Ayman al-Muqaddam, confirmed on Saturday reports that there was a noise at the end of a cockpit recording from the crashed Russian jet.
Al-Muqaddam said experts were still gathering information and it was too soon to announce their conclusions. The British transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, said information obtained by UK officials indicated that there was a “high probability” that the aircraft was brought down by an explosive device.
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How Russia's military presence in Syria complicates Israeli affairs
Israel’s defense establishment quietly preparing for an expanded presence of the Iranian-led axis in southern Syria.
From Israel’s perspective, there are two emerging consequences of Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria, and neither of them is particularly good.
The first is that Russia’s allies on the ground in Syria, who happen to be Israel’s bitter enemies, will now expand their troublesome presence near the Israeli border.
Specifically, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, its transnational terrorist unit the Quds Force, Hezbollah forces and Assad military units are all benefiting from Russia’s air war in Syria, and their enhanced presence on Israel’s border will soon be a fact on the ground.
The village of Khader on Syria’s side of the Golan Heights was, until recently, the only Assad regime stronghold left standing near the Israeli border.
But in recent weeks, since Russia began providing air support to Syrian,
Iranian and Hezbollah forces battling Sunni organizations, the Assad regime has grown bolder. It has begun to take back positions it previously lost on the Syrian Golan Heights. Wherever the Assad regime controls turf, its Iranian and Hezbollah allies tend to pour in,
especially in regions that can be used to plot cross-border rocket, missile and bomb attacks or infiltration raids on Israel.
The second consequence of Russia’s operations in Syria is that it complicates Israel’s own extensive intelligence efforts and, according to international reports, covert strike sorties over Syria.
Russian jets are now flying in Syria’s deep south, in Deraa, dropping munitions, and putting the Israel Air Force on the highest alert, despite the deconfliction mechanism created by the IDF and Russian Armed Forces in recent weeks.
As Brig.-Gen. (res.) Abraham Assael, CEO of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies in Herzliya, told
The Jerusalem Post recently,
human error could undermine the deconfliction mechanism with a fair amount of ease.
Russian jets operating so close to the Israeli border may well come as a surprise to Israel, which initially believed that the Russian planes would provide air coverage in northeast and northwest Syria.
All of this means that the IDF’s Northern Command, Military Intelligence and IAF must quietly recalibrate their preparations on this highly tense front.
The preparations will presumably include protocols for dealing with deliberate proxy attacks by the emboldened Iran-led axis in Syria, and accidental run-ins with the Russian Air Force, which, without sufficient caution, could entail grave and even global unintended consequences.
With respect to the first threat – that of renewed Iranian-orchestrated terrorism from Syria – the
Post learned this week that the Mount Hermon territorial brigade, which faces the village of Khader, has been training to respond to a “combined terrorist attack” that could involve border bombs, rockets, an attempted kidnapping of soldiers, and antitank missile fire.
“There is someone who gets up every morning and asks, ‘How can I carry out an attack on Israel?’ Most of the time, they run into great difficulties,” a senior source from the brigade said.
The source confirmed that these hostile elements are being orchestrated by the Iranian-led radical axis.
No less important, however, these same elements are primarily bogged down in unending battles with Sunni militias that continue to surround them.
Opening a second front with Israel seems a most unwise option for them at this time. That calculation, combined with Israel’s robust responses to previous attempts to plot attacks on it, is keeping the Syrian border quiet – for now.
According to Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
“Russia’s increased deployment in Syria, and Iran and Hezbollah’s tightening grip on areas just north of the Israel-Syria border, may soon change regional realities irrevocably.”
In a paper he published at Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, where he is a senior fellow, Amidror also said that
“more than ever, Israel must remain determined in its efforts to prevent Hezbollah from obtaining game-changing weapons.”
If international reports are to be believed, Israel has no intention of giving up its covert strikes against Iranian and Syrian weapons trafficking to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
AT THE start of the week, international media reports claimed
Israeli aircraft carried out air strikes in Syrian airspace, reportedly attacking numerous Hezbollah targets in the Qalamoun mountain region near the Lebanese border, possibly to intercept a weapons convoy to Lebanon.
If true, the reports indicate that Israel has no intention of standing down on the enforcement of its redline against arms trafficking to Hezbollah, irrespective of the Russian air presence in the neighborhood.
Whether by coincidence or not, days after the reported strikes,
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon reaffirmed his redlines on Syria, saying
Israel will respond with zero tolerance to cross-border artillery fire, weapons smuggling to terrorists, and the distribution of chemical weapons to terrorists.
“Those who cross the redlines will be hit,” Ya’alon warned.
In his paper, Amidror linked the Russian air campaign to the Iranian nuclear deal, which he said “lent the Islamic republic the international legitimacy it craves. Moreover,
this move represents a de facto regional alliance between Tehran and Moscow, even if neither of them has declared as much publicly.”
The alliance raises several crucial questions, Amidror said, not least of which are:
“What does the Russian involvement mean for Israel’s ability to undermine Iran and Hezbollah’s force-building efforts? And how far would Iran go to leverage its ties with Russia and paint Israel into a corner?” “Moreover, given the complexities created by the Russian presence just north of the border, how much of Iran and Hezbollah’s antics would Israel be willing to tolerate before it retaliates? What would Russia do opposite a forceful Israeli response, should the situation call for one? Would Russia refrain from weighing in on an aggressive Israeli response in an area it is seemingly responsible for? Could it really remain unfazed?” Amidror asked.
It is safe to assume that precisely the same questions are being asked in the Defense Ministry and in the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv.
For now, the only apparent answer is the one offered by Amidror, who said, “These questions would have to stand the test of reality before they can be answered.”
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